The postseason to what many are calling one of the more entertaining and notable NBA regular seasons in quite some time has been underway for about a week or so, and holy crow have we got some delicious storylines.
We’ve got the villainous Miami Heat looking like (unfortunately) one of two solid favorites in the Eastern Conference. We’ve still got LeBron getting booed every time he touches the ball in enemy territory. We’ve got the Boston Celtics having swept the beloved underdog New York Knicks out of their first postseason appearance in seven years (sorry New York. It’s an improvement over recent seasons’ results, but there’s still a lot of work to do). We’ve got a possible first-round bouncing of Orlando in the works (Hawks lead that series 3-1!). We’ve got a strong possibility that either the L.A. Lakers or San Antonio Spurs (God willing – how about both?!) might be shown the door to an early summer vacation before Round 2 tips off.
And there’s even a decent chance that Dirk Nowitzki and his ugly mug will be booted in Round 1 since Dallas is tied with Portland 2-2 as the series shifts back to The Lone Star State for Game 5. I’m definitely rooting for the Blazers in that series simply because I can’t take the HD closeups of Nowitzki anymore. If you have children, and you want to frighten the hell out of them, forget about scary movies or threatening to take away their PS3’s or Xbox’s. Simply strap them down for a couple hours whenever Dallas’ next game is on the tube, and they’ll be horrified for days to come after staring at Dirk for about 160 minutes.
And without further ado, check the rhyme technique.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Chicago Bulls lead (8) Indiana Pacers 3-1
Derek Rose is the all-but unanimous pick for the 2010-11 MVP in an era of unprecedentedly diverse talent for the league. He’s the youngest and most dangerous floor general out there, and his team actually has a shot to go to the finals this year. It’s likely going to come down to an epic Eastern Conference Finals series between Chicago and Miami, but it would be unwise to count out the defending Eastern Conference champion Boston Celtics, whose first-round sweep of the Knicks wasn’t so much a testament to the Cs’ play as it was a showcase for N.Y.’s postseason shortcomings. Either way, believe it or not Indiana has challenged Chicago in a way that few thought they would be capable through these first four games. They’ve all been close, and the Pacers could have won a couple that the Bulls pulled out in the end. Defensively, Indiana is deceptively effective. They’ve got youth and they contain Chicago’s offensive weapons reasonably well in the half-court game, but it’s damn hard to bottle up Mr. Rose permanently. Nice effort by the Pacers thus far, but it’s quite likely that Chicago will take Game 5 at home Tuesday night. Keep an eye on D-Rose though, as he came up a bit gimpy in Game 4 and wore a protective boot to practice during one of Chicago’s recent off-days. By all accounts he’ll be ready to go in Game 5.
(2) Miami Heat lead (7) Philadelphia 76ers 3-1
As a Philadelphia fan, of course I would love to have seen a better showing from the Sixers, an early-season playoff longshot that began 3-13 before later righting the ship under the inimitable Doug Collins, a man whose coaching carousel activity over the years would make a circus performer dizzy. But you know what? Winning Game 4 at home and prolonging the agony, er um, extending the series (that’s it!) is a positive for which this young team can … you know what, forget it. They’re getting smoked in Game 5 at Miami. And it’s not a reverse jinx, I truly believe it, I tell you. Look, Philly doesn’t have the schemes, the athletes or the playoff experience to oust this Heat team, but if Miami goes cold in the shooting department, anything is possible. But I don’t think I’m going out on a limb by predicting that the Heat will take Game 5 in South Beach and most likely end up playing Boston in Round 2. And that series will be a fight to the finish. If it goes any less than 6 games I’ll be shocked. Philly has some nice building blocks for the future. Evan Turner is a great young player, and Spencer Hawes has actually held his own at times in the low post against the likes of Joel Anthony, Chris Bosh and LBJ (not the toughest task, I realize). Lou Williams, Jrue Holliday and Elton Brand have all provided sparks at times. But we all know how this one is going to turn out.
(3) Boston Celtics def. (6) New York Knicks 4-0
This is not last year’s Boston team. The departure of Kendrick Perkins has completely changed the identity of Doc Rivers’ crew. And don’t be deceived by the Knicks sweep. Sure it’s a positive outcome, but the Knicks were simply not prepared to contend in these playoffs. Chauncey Billups got hurt, Amar’e Stoudamire wasn’t 100 percent healthy for the whole series, and the Knicks had few (or no) other adequate options for scoring the ball consistently and repeatedly outside of Carmelo Anthony. And let’s not even get started on the defensive end. Lots of work to do there. Somebody pointed out earlier this year how interesting a choice it was for Mike D’Antoni to be coaching New York. After all, he’s a run-and-gun, offensive-minded guy coaching a franchise whose hallmark traits are toughness, defense and a slower-paced, half-court brand of basketball. All of these are contributing factors in the Knicks’ early playoff exit. But they made it for the first time in seven years. There is once again optimism about basketball in New York, and there should be because it’s a basketball town. I hope they can continue to improve and generate excitement, because the league is much better off when the Knicks are relevant. Now as for Boston, they still have a great nucleus in place. But they’re not as ferocious in the low post as they once were. Perk is gone, Shaq is still hurt (and washed up), which means that Big Baby, Kevin Garnett and Jermaine O’Neal are your superstar big men on your Title Run. Good luck Boston fans, because I think you’ll need it. The Heat matchup in Round 2 will be very intriguing because Miami has its own low-post deficiencies as well, so we could see a neutralizing effect there. Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce will need to be successful for the C’s to keep winning, because eventually their weaknesses under the basket are going to be exposed. Most of all, Boston needs to regain their swagger and overall intimidating presence to stay alive. Half the reason they made it all the way to Game 7 in the Finals last year as a No. 4 seed is because they believed they could do it and they just straight muscled their way there.
(5) Atlanta Hawks lead (4) Orlando Magic 3-1
This is by far the most surprising result so far in the Eastern Conference Playoffs. Not even because of the seeding, but because of how deep Orlando’s playoff runs have been the past three seasons. Also because Orlando blasted the Hawks with a first-round sweep last year, and all of those games were heavily in the Magic’s favor. But as with the Boston-New York series, Atlanta’s success is just as much a function of Orlando’s shortcomings as it is due to the Hawks’ level of play. The Magic are shooting about 40 percent from the floor through the first four games. And nobody besides Dwight Howard is bringing the offensive firepower. If other Magic players don’t step up, they’re going home early this year. The Hawks, however, can improve in a few areas as well. They have a tendency to lose focus and not put games away when they’ve got a commanding lead. Oh and they also shot 12-for-20 from the foul line in their Game 4 win. True, Joe Johnson nailed four key free throws in the closing minutes for the victory, but a better performance at the charity stripe throughout the game may have guaranteed that it wouldn’t be so close at the end. Look for the Hawks to move on and likely match up with Chicago in Round 2.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(8) Memphis Grizzlies lead (1) San Antonio Spurs 2-1
That’s right – no misprint. Oh and of course the next game is in Memphis. Boy will that be a pivotal Game 4. If the Grizz can somehow take a 3-1 series lead with Game 5 heading back to San Antonio, who knows what the H might happen. I know I’m probably sounding a little overzealous at the thought of an early departure for Tim Duncan and company, but I, like many, am basically tired of them, so please let me engage in my wishful thinking. But really, watching the Spurs play is sometimes like watching paint dry. The end result is what you want, but observing the journey is painful. Memphis, on the other hand, is young, fast and a tad more exciting. And they obviously have the confidence of knowing that they belong on the same court with the Spurs. Beale Street in Memphis will be rocking for Game 4. If San Antonio evens the series, they regain home court advantage. I don’t imagine they would lose the series if they can square it up with a Game 4 victory in Memphis. But if the Grizzlies can somehow go up 3-1, then they’re at least guaranteed a chance to close it out at home in Game 6 (assuming a Game 5 San Antonio home win), and at that point anything is possible. Zach Randolph has to continue to be a force in the paint, and outside shooters like Sam Young and O.J. Mayo need to keep doing their thing as well. But let’s not also forget that the Spurs’ version of the Big 3 – Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Duncan – along with the best coach that nobody talks about (Greg Popovich) have done this a million times, and are probably hiding all kinds of tricks up their collective sleeve that they’ll only break out during desperate times. Can’t wait to see how this series plays out.
(2) Los Angeles Lakers and (7) New Orleans Hornets tied at 2-2
Chris Paul put on a one-man clinic in Game 4 in New Orleans last night, notching a triple-double and turning in one of the best playoff performances his franchise has ever seen. The value that exists in a player as good as Paul is immeasurable, because eventually defenders on the opposing team just collapse on the superstar and leave open other guys just waiting for their own opportunity. If Paul isn’t the league’s best all-around point guard (even better than Rose), then I haven’t written an overly long blog entry that’s making you currently wish you had the last 10-15 minutes of your life back (you mean you made it this far and you’re still reading?! You like me! You really, really like me!). And by the way, I’ll do you one better. As strong as the Hornets have looked with ‘Who the hell are these guys’ types of players like Jarrett Jack, Carl Landry, Marco Belinelli and Emeka Okafor playing way over their heads in the absence of injured big man David West, I’m still not picking against the Lakers. Not only do I think they’re going to win this series, but I unfortunately think they still probably have the best chance in the Western Conference to make the Finals. Don’t be fooled by their apparent vulnerability. They’re not going away any time soon. And Kobe’s ankle isn’t really hurt that badly, despite how grim it looked in the closing minutes of Game 4. He’ll be back with a vengeance for Game 5 in L.A. You see, for New Orleans to have a real shot at winning this series, Chris Paul is going to need to maintain his current level of play in every remaining game. As amazing as he is, I just don’t know if it’s realistic to expect that. I think L.A. wins Game 5 and closes it out either in 6 or 7, depending on how much pride the Hornets have left for Game 6.
(3) Dallas Mavericks and (6) Portland Trailblazers tied at 2-2
What can I say about Dirk Nowitzki that hasn’t already been said about trolls that live under bridges? Okay, sorry, I had to get that out of the way first. Despite the scowl that’s permanently affixed to Dirk’s face, his Dallas Mavericks have fooled us all into thinking that things will be different for Dallas this year. No early-round playoff exit in 2011, no sirree. These Mavs are deep off the bench, Jason Kidd is playing as if he were really about 10 years younger, and Dallas has the ability to turn up the defensive pressure when it matters most. So why did they drop Games 3 and 4 then after bolting out to an impressive 2-0 series lead against a highly talented young Portland team? Because the Rose Garden has been a House of Horrors for Dallas, that’s why. Do the research and see how they’ve performed there in recent years, playoffs or not. It hasn’t been pretty. The Mavs just may have to win this one in 7 games. Of all the first-round series, this is probably the toughest to call. I feel that it could literally go either way. Dallas is known for their premature playoff collapses, but Portland is inexperienced in big moments despite their collection of highly-skilled players. Something tells me Dallas won’t lose at home and might end up pulling this one out in 7 games, leaving them vulnerable against a second-round opponent that’s likely to be better-rested. But who knows – maybe it’s just about matchups and nobody will give Dallas the same fight that Portland has the rest of the way. The heart says Portland, but the head says Dallas. I like the Mavs in 7.
(4) Oklahoma City leads (5) Denver 3-0
This is a fascinating series. Coming into the playoffs, many thought it had the potential to be the best first-round matchup in the west, if not both conferences. But instead, it’s the most lopsided in the West. Just confirms that you never can tell. Great storylines going on here. Denver has played way better since dumping Carmelo for New York and inheriting about 30 percent of the Knicks’ 2010-11 roster (including sharpshooter Danilo Gallinari). They’ve got a nice blend of youth and experience, and they’re an intimidating presence with their toughness, physicality and 50 kajillion body/facial tattoos. Oklahoma City though, outside of the Bulls, is definitely the most intriguing young team in the NBA. If anybody can dump the old guard from out West (Spurs/Lakers) and advance to the finals this year, it’s the OKC Thunder. They’ve got scoring for days (Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, and now, Kendrick Perkins), and if you’ve watched them this year you know they are no slouch on defense (start remembering names like Serge Ibaka and Thabo Sefalosha – difficult though they may be to spell and pronounce). Denver has fought the good fight, but when the Thunder is rolling they’re tough to stop. The Nuggets can prevent the sweep with a victory at home tonight in Game 4, but it would simply be delaying the inevitable. The Thunder are moving on. Oh and they’re the only team to have won 2 games against the Lakers last year throughout the Western Conference Playoffs, so they know how to attack Kobe and company. Would absolutely love to see a Lakers-Thunder rematch this year.
