Prediction ... PAIN!

These NFL conference championship games today are going to be straight up bone-crunching, raw displays of power. In the freezing cold. Apparently, this thing happens in January where really cold air permeates much of the northern portions of the United States, and we have some particularly brutal pockets of said cold air going on this weekend. Not so much fun if you're attending one of these games live (or even worse, playing in them), but much more so if you're watching from the comfort of home (me!).

Fellow football lovers, let's relish these last three games of the 2010-11 campaign. We might not see any more for quite some time after this, what with the gloomy presence of a possible lockout casting a depressingly uncertain pall over the proceedings of the NFL's postseason. Let's not focus too much on the labor-dispute saga -- certainly not while the games are on -- but it's hard to forget about it completely. How the draft might be affected is also uncertain, particularly as it applies to rookie contracts. April of 2011 might be the last chance for players out of college to ink deals that give them a lot of cheddar guaranteed up-front before proving that they deserved the big bucks all along. Personally, I wouldn't be opposed to some sort of language or structuring of rookie contracts that filters out gradually larger chunks of cash based on better-than-expected, rookie-year, on-the-field results, but it would probably be a little too nebulous or difficult to enforce this.

Anyway, on to the picks.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - NO. 6 SEED GREEN BAY PACKERS (12-6) AT NO. 2 SEED CHICAGO BEARS (12-5)

Last week: Green Bay throttled the top-seeded Falcons in Atlanta, surprising more than a few followers. Chicago stormed out to a dominant lead over the visiting Seattle Seahawks before letting their foot off the gas pedal toward the end, making the final score a bit misleading. Those who watched closely weren't fooled - Chicago was loads better than Seattle last weekend.

Keys to the Game: These two squads are fierce divisional rivals and two of the long-standing, storied franchises in NFL history. There is certainly no love lost between them even during their regular-season matchups, and the stakes can't possibly get any higher than this for a Bears/Packers playoff meeting (the right to go to the Super Bowl).

The teams split their regular season meetings, with Chicago winning 20-17 at Soldier Field early on in the season, and Green Bay prevailing 10-3 in a Week 17, "win-to-get-in" Lambeau Field clash.

To say that today's game will likely be a close call, especially when you throw in the single-digit wind chill temperatures expected for the 2 p.m. local time kickoff, would be a severe understatement.

A productive passing game is infinitely more difficult to pull off in frigid conditions, which may negate the fact that GB's Aaron Rodgers seems to have a slight edge over the Bears' Jay Cutler at the quarterback position. Both offenses struggled to get a whole lot done in that week 17 meeting, but turnovers and penalties were also part of that equation. Needless to say, whichever team commits more of such bone-headed infractions today will likely walk off Soldier Field as the loser.

Assuming the passing games will be slow-going, establishing an efficient ground game will be ever important. Or perhaps we'll see more of a West Coast offense type of passing game - lots of screens and over-the-middle short stuff. Expect both defenses to throw lots of looks at each QB to disrupt the offense's rhythm and timing.

Should the game unfold with stubborn yardage via passing attacks, it would seem that the Bears have more high-profile weapons out of the backfield (Matt Forte, or even some gadget-type plays with Devin Hester) than does Green Bay, which has worked miracles out of its injury situation this year. James Starks probably didn't even expect he'd be as significant for the Pack as he has in the playoffs this year.

The coaching matchup seems to be kind of a wash. Neither Mike McCarthy nor Lovie Smith stands out as a high-profile genius, but at least Lovie went to a Super Bowl with this franchise four years ago.

The Pick: It's hard to pick against Green Bay. Damn difficult. They were a preseason Super Bowl favorite, they took their lumps with injuries, but then they still managed to finish 10-6 and come out on top in a must-win game to sneak into the playoffs. They did this with a patchwork gathering of non-superstars and a gutsy QB named Aaron Rodgers, who by all accounts is probably one of the potential future superstars in this league. The idea that they are in the NFC Championship game is a little nuts.

The 2010 Chicago Bears, on the other hand, are that team that doesn't have the same flash or story behind them. They're the squad that nobody (me included) has wanted to admit might actually be a Super Bowl contender. They don't seem like they should be this good, but they are. They present matchup problems offensively for even the most tested of defenses, and defensively they have looked really solid lately.

Even though I'd love nothing more than seeing a Jets-Packers Super Bowl, I think Chicago is coming out on top in this one. Look, the Packers have been an incredible story this year. And if they had stayed healthy all season I would probably be picking them in this game (come to think of it, had they stayed healthy all season this game would probably be at Lambeau Field and not in Chicago).

But the Bears were just beaten by this team a few weeks ago, and you know they can't like the fact that they are considered an underdog at home against a No. 6 seed. It's kind of insulting really. I think they're going to come out loaded to the teeth. I think Israel Idonije and Julius Peppers are going to be unstoppable beasts on the defensive line, and that Aaron Rodgers will be running for his life most of this game. I think Chicago's 'D' might turn in a performance for the ages. And I think Chicago's offense is going to surprise a lot of folks in how multi-dimensional it can actually be.

And let's not forget the obvious advantage the Bears have on special teams (Hester, anyone?)

It will be an incredible fight, but I think Chicago wants this bad, and playing at home will be the edge that they need to push them to that other level. Chicago in a close one, probably a 3-point game.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - NO. 6 NEW YORK JETS (13-5) AT NO. 2 SEED PITTSBURGH STEELERS (13-4)

Last week: The Jets took down the top-seeded, favorite-to-win-it-all, big bad New England Patriots, IN FOXBORO mind you, 28-21. They just played better, plain and simple. The defense was incredible. And they were pissed. They backed up all that trash-talking, which is good for them, because otherwise they'd be eating a ton of crow right now. The Steelers beat up on their divisional kid brother, the Baltimore Ravens, 31-24 in a close one at Heinz Field. The Steelers and Ravens don't know how to play a game with each other that's not intensely even. Baltimore's last chance ran out when a fourth-down pass to T.J. Houshmanzadeh hit him in the chest and bounced out of his arms around midfield with under a minute remaining.

Keys to the Game: The Jets knocked off the Steelers 22-17 at Heinz Field on Dec. 19. The key play was a late-game safety by New York's Jason Taylor that provided a five-point cushion, meaning that Pittsburgh needed a touchdown on their last drive instead of a game-tying field goal.

Jets head coach Rex Ryan basically just needs to duplicate today what he did in that game. Although it certainly won't be that simple. Pittsburgh likely watched the game tape countless times over the past 7 days to study what went wrong so that they can correct it.

The Steelers' offense vs. The Jets' vaunted defense is the premiere matchup for this game. New York stalwart defensive back Darrelle Revis will likely be matched up on the Steelers' best big-play receiver -- Mike Wallace -- and Antonio Cromartie will likely lock up against Hines Ward. This will be an incredibly physical battle. This game will likely come down to what the younger Pittsburgh receivers - Antonio Brown and Emmanuelle Sanders - can do against the Jets' lesser pass defenders. Can the Jets' defensive front (guys like Shaun Ellis) get enough pressure on Ben Roethlisberger when they'll be outnumbered, much the way they did against Tom Brady last Sunday? It will be interesting to see how this all plays out. The linebackers and corners/safeties will likely be in pass coverage on almost every play, since this tactic worked so well against New England. They may have to change up that strategy though if it doesn't work out personnel-wise against the Steelers.

On the other side of the ball, can Mark Sanchez become the first quarterback ever to win five road playoff games in a career, in just his second year in the NFL? Yes, that would be insane. But it's not impossible. The Steelers always have a great defense, but Troy Polamalu, the guy that takes them to another level, hasn't looked the same since coming back from injury. Pittsburgh's D is vulnerable in spots, and the Jets have to do a great job at finding those. Sanchez will need to have a big game offensively if the Jets are going to win, considering that P'burgh has only allowed 100-plus rushing yards twice this season. The Jets will have to be very inventive with their offensive play-calling, because you can't win if you don't score.

Something tells me the Jets' offense is going to have a tough time sustaining drives and staying out on the field. I'm expecting a Time of Possession breakdown that heavily favors the Steelers. This worked out for the Jets last weekend though. New England had the ball way more than the Jets did, but we all know how that played out.

The Pick: The Steelers are a model organization, all the way around. They have six Super Bowls, more than any other franchise, and they have a veteran, but still relatively young, QB who has two Super Bowls under his belt already. They have a ferocious defense, great coaching, and they're tough to beat at home.

So naturally, I'm picking the New York Football Jets.

Hear me out. The Jets just have that intangible quality this year that can't quite be explained. It's more than their flashy ways, their trash-talking head coach and players, their frathouse mentality, their 'us-against-the-world' swagger. That's all part of it. But beyond that, they always seem to find a way to win when it's absolutely necessary. They're not scared of playing on the road - they've already shown they can do that successfully (just look at the past two seasons). There's also the fact that they beat this team already on this field. Sure that usually works against the team that won the first time in the rematch, but it's different with this Jets team. You can feel it. They're not scared or fazed by anything.

I think they'll win the key matchups and do enough defensively to basically shut Pittsburgh down. In fact, I'm expecting the Jets' D to be the hero today, come up with a few big turnovers to set up shop for New York with decent field position and a few relatively easy scores. I don't think the Jets can drive the ball down the field consistently all night long against that Steelers defense. But I have a feeling the Jets' D is going to come up huge and help get the win for this team, just like it did last week against New England.

Remember, the Jets have taken down Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in back-to-back weeks, on the road. Roethlisberger and the Steelers are next - and they've already won that battle this year. They just need to keep doing what they've been doing. On the other hand, the Steelers' run of success can't continue forever. They've got to lose one of these big games. Today seems like just as good a day as any.

Another extremely close one, but I think the Jets get it done.

Jets-Bears Super Bowl. My God. If I'm actually right, I'll be shocked.