Okay, by all accounts, the recent inactivity is unacceptable, and that’s being kind. To be fair, I WAS abducted by aliens. I don’t want to talk about it, but know this – if you’re hanging out by yourself in the middle of an empty field and you see a bright white light illuminating the night sky, rising like a Phoenix (perhaps from Arizona), do NOT stare directly into said light and do nothing. Do just about anything else. Run, cover your eyes, scream, yell, attempt calisthenics … but please, I beg of you, do NOT just stare into the light.
Now, with that out of the way, let us turn to Division I-A college football – and as we stand at the end of this post-Thanksgiving weekend, many of the kinks of the 2009 season are starting to iron themselves out, much like a halfway acceptable dress shirt.
It’s all shaping up folks. Florida, Alabama and Texas are still Numbers 1-3, but one of those first two schools will obviously lose in Saturday’s SEC Championship Game. Texas will be the heavy favorite against a 3-loss Nebraska team in the Big 12 Title contest the same day, but I’m honestly rooting against the Longhorns at this point, just so we can see a first-hand test of how the BCS system would respond to such tomfoolery and unexpectedness.
Let’s suppose for a second that Texas loses to Nebraska, and either Florida or Alabama are left standing as the lone unbeaten Top 3 team. Would TCU, unbeaten and ranked fourth in the BCS Standings but hailing from a significantly weaker Mountain West Conference, sneak into the national championship game to face either Florida or ‘Bama, or would Texas be rewarded with a berth in the championship tilt right after having lost to a mediocre Cornhuskers team?
I think I know the answer, and if what happened last year is any indication, then we’ll be seeing UT vs. either Florida or Alabama no matter what happens. In 2008, Oklahoma lost in the Big 12 title matchup but turned around and found itself in the championship game against Florida. Meanwhile, Texas found itself on the outside looking in, despite having lost only to a highly-ranked and well-regarded Texas Tech team midway through the regular season.
This year should be different, and here’s why: it’s not just because TCU is unbeaten, fourth in the BCS Standings, and should go to the big game if two of the top 3 teams lose (although that would certainly be reason enough). Beyond that, it’s because of the utter and complete domination that the Horned Frogs have shown this year against their opponents. We can all agree that they play in the weakest conference amongst all BCS-bound teams, yes? So what must a team that is automatically penalized by a soft schedule do to compensate? Beat all of its opponents by a wide, convincing margin. And that’s pretty much just what the Horned Frogs have done.
Only two of TCU’s victories were by a less-than-a-touchdown margin – a 14-10 triumph over Clemson (which lives in the SEC, the pound-for-pound toughest conference in college football), and a 20-17 win against Air Force, traditionally one of the more feisty non-major conference independents.
Overall, the Horned Frogs’ average margin of victory in compiling their impressive 12-0 regular-season campaign in 2009 is 40.67 – 12.42. Don’t forget, that huge disparity includes the aforementioned 3-point and 4-point games to skew it down from what it otherwise would be. And it’s not as though all of TCU’s victims were unranked. Both BYU and Utah were at No. 16 when each of those teams were crushed by the Horned Frogs by respective scores of 38-7 and 55-28.
So the long and the short of it is: you couldn’t possibly or realistically ask TCU to do much more in terms of taking care of its own business within the context of advancing to a championship game. If Texas wins, then it’s just too bad for TCU. Then we’d have two unbeatens from major conferences (even though the Big 12 was considerably down this year – but that’s a whole other argument). But if Nebraska somehow upends the Longhorns and TCU doesn’t get the nod, the BCS will be looking like this.
Oh and let’s not pretend that strong teams from lesser conferences aren’t capable of beating up on teams from superior conferences. Look no further than Utah’s 31-17 win over No. 4 Alabama in the 2009 All-State Sugar Bowl. And for anyone who watched at the time, the game wasn’t nearly as close as the score would suggest.
As for the way the other BCS bowls are likely to shape up this year, the Rose Bowl will pit Big 10 champion Ohio State against the PAC 10 winner (either Oregon or Oregon State – they play each other Thursday night to determine the conference champion and that will be a ‘dandy,’ as Keith Jackson would say). UT will most likely win the Big 12 and Florida will probably beat Alabama (just for the sake of matchup predictions), which would put the Longhorns against the Gators for the ultimate trophy. ‘Bama vs. TCU would be a nice consolation prize for the Horned Frogs, and still a tough matchup for the SEC runner-up (hey if Alabama wins Saturday and goes on to face Texas, who wouldn’t love to see Florida play TCU come January 2010? Between Tebow’s clean-cut love for God and the TCU program all in the same place, that would be a religious experience like no other!)
That would basically leave the Big East champion (either Pittsburgh or Cincinnati, depending on what happens between these two squads Saturday afternoon) to take on an at-large BCS team (Boise State or Iowa maybe), while ACC winner Georgia Tech or Clemson (those two schools play for that conference title Saturday night) would face another at-large BCS team (again, possibly BSU or Iowa).
Happy Bowling – hope it works out controversy free (but I doubt it).
No comments:
Post a Comment